Negative yield spread a good recession indicator.
On March 22, the yield spread between the 10-year note and 3-month bill became negative, which has historically been a good recession indicator. As soon as the Fed begins to lower its policy rate, the yield on the 3-month bill will follow, and as a consequence, the spread will once again be positive. Dotted zones in the chart mark the time period when the yield spread becomes negative.
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